Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 28,290
2 Arizona 25,703
3 Florida 24,806
4 Mississippi 22,570
5 New York 21,876
6 New Jersey 21,011
7 Alabama 20,666
8 South Carolina 19,506
9 Georgia 18,850
10 Rhode Island 18,631
11 Nevada 18,271
12 District of Columbia 18,070
13 Massachusetts 17,561
14 Tennessee 17,540
15 Texas 17,526
16 Arkansas 16,363
17 Delaware 15,994
18 Maryland 15,889
19 Iowa 15,504
20 Illinois 15,459
21 Nebraska 14,698
22 California 14,254
23 Connecticut 14,113
24 Idaho 13,875
25 Utah 13,764
26 North Carolina 12,995
27 Virginia 11,725
28 Indiana 11,299
29 Wisconsin 11,135
30 Oklahoma 11,008
31 South Dakota 10,857
32 Minnesota 10,805
33 Kansas 10,690
34 New Mexico 10,642
35 North Dakota 9,972
36 Missouri 9,754
37 Michigan 9,696
38 Pennsylvania 9,632
39 Colorado 8,821
40 Ohio 8,627
41 Washington 8,568
42 Kentucky 8,128
43 Puerto Rico 6,926
44 Alaska 6,111
45 Wyoming 5,269
46 Oregon 5,043
47 New Hampshire 5,023
48 Montana 4,633
49 West Virginia 4,293
50 Maine 3,006
51 Hawaii 2,454
52 Vermont 2,338

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 347
2 Georgia 340
3 Alabama 322
4 Mississippi 310
5 Tennessee 305
6 Louisiana 297
7 Nevada 278
8 Arkansas 260
9 Idaho 240
10 South Carolina 235
11 Texas 229
12 Puerto Rico 228
13 California 187
14 North Dakota 183
15 Oklahoma 182
16 Indiana 164
17 Virginia 164
18 Wisconsin 154
19 Arizona 153
20 North Carolina 151
21 Missouri 147
22 Iowa 143
23 Illinois 142
24 Kentucky 140
25 Hawaii 137
26 Maryland 136
27 Minnesota 133
28 South Dakota 125
29 Alaska 113
30 Kansas 113
31 Utah 113
32 District of Columbia 110
33 Nebraska 105
34 Montana 103
35 Ohio 96
36 Washington 95
37 New Mexico 86
38 Oregon 80
39 West Virginia 77
40 Delaware 71
41 Colorado 67
42 Michigan 67
43 Massachusetts 56
44 Pennsylvania 52
45 Wyoming 52
46 New Jersey 40
47 Rhode Island 39
48 New York 33
49 New Hampshire 21
50 Maine 11
51 Connecticut 7
52 Vermont 7

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,787
2 New York 1,663
3 Massachusetts 1,267
4 Connecticut 1,245
5 Rhode Island 957
6 Louisiana 917
7 District of Columbia 837
8 Michigan 652
9 Mississippi 637
10 Illinois 619
11 Delaware 606
12 Maryland 592
13 Pennsylvania 576
14 Arizona 570
15 Indiana 451
16 South Carolina 394
17 Georgia 386
18 Florida 381
19 Alabama 360
20 New Mexico 326
21 Colorado 323
22 Ohio 313
23 Nevada 311
24 Texas 309
25 New Hampshire 308
26 Minnesota 301
27 Iowa 295
28 Virginia 272
29 California 262
30 Washington 232
31 Missouri 225
32 North Carolina 209
33 Nebraska 182
34 Arkansas 180
35 Tennessee 177
36 Kentucky 176
37 Wisconsin 173
38 South Dakota 165
39 North Dakota 152
40 Oklahoma 152
41 Idaho 132
42 Kansas 130
43 Utah 105
44 Maine 92
45 Vermont 92
46 Puerto Rico 87
47 Oregon 85
48 West Virginia 77
49 Montana 70
50 Wyoming 48
51 Alaska 32
52 Hawaii 21

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 8
2 Mississippi 7
3 Arizona 6
4 Florida 6
5 Nevada 6
6 Texas 6
7 Georgia 5
8 South Carolina 5
9 Alabama 3
10 Arkansas 3
11 California 2
12 Iowa 2
13 Massachusetts 2
14 Missouri 2
15 Montana 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 North Carolina 2
18 Puerto Rico 2
19 Washington 2
20 West Virginia 2
21 Delaware 1
22 District of Columbia 1
23 Idaho 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Indiana 1
26 Maryland 1
27 Minnesota 1
28 Nebraska 1
29 North Dakota 1
30 Ohio 1
31 Oregon 1
32 South Dakota 1
33 Tennessee 1
34 Virginia 1
35 Wisconsin 1
36 Alaska 0
37 Colorado 0
38 Connecticut 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Kentucky 0
42 Maine 0
43 Michigan 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 New Jersey 0
46 New York 0
47 Oklahoma 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,287 1 99
Lake Tennessee 112,172 2 99
Lee Arkansas 100,937 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 96,075 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 93,596 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 32,996 135 95
Richland South Carolina 21,104 382 87
York South Carolina 12,698 894 71
Orange California 12,483 914 70
Pierce Washington 6,900 1638 47

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,139 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Galax city Virginia 3,781 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,160 5 99
Richland South Carolina 366 689 78
Davidson Tennessee 307 795 74
Orange California 229 1019 67
Pierce Washington 165 1266 59
York South Carolina 103 1593 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons